Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 34.853458 37.696520 40.825676 44.557908 48.932914 53.957068 60.251465
2025-09-21 30.119456 33.558934 37.558108 42.640414 49.065831 57.129355 68.394083
2025-09-28 27.782173 31.563690 36.125141 42.185142 50.285621 61.184397 77.888321
2025-10-05 27.310061 31.660823 37.116601 44.726279 55.570589 71.454677 98.985853
2025-10-12 25.875101 30.371284 36.147247 44.459497 56.823786 76.057106 112.707762
2025-10-19 24.981797 29.677900 35.855601 45.030673 59.301726 83.009887 133.550116
2025-10-26 24.476062 29.434552 36.118370 46.380267 63.139195 93.170339 166.979607
2025-11-02 23.668992 28.714912 35.637983 46.532532 65.002679 100.187697 198.410794
2025-11-09 22.448957 27.351711 34.137081 44.946976 63.625982 100.375414 210.680234
2025-11-16 21.333387 26.078302 32.689449 43.323074 61.975631 99.639970 219.863939
2025-11-23 20.956995 25.818141 32.699953 44.026446 64.639345 109.099602 277.364993
2025-11-30 20.412531 25.288379 32.271055 43.959596 65.829662 115.516028 334.367455
2025-12-07 19.552572 24.371222 31.359889 43.280795 66.300994 121.926973 423.188620
2025-12-14 18.489146 23.115888 29.868896 41.498154 64.323592 121.325663 471.344937
2025-12-21 17.839640 22.425657 29.196015 41.059010 65.054932 128.886883 648.343257
2025-12-28 17.868369 22.728128 30.083651 43.480453 72.536910 163.146680 2707.882096
2026-01-04 17.343636 22.170151 29.552908 43.226459 73.828185 177.014255 23392.803084
2026-01-11 17.015049 21.890396 29.451484 43.770020 77.215988 203.687407 NaN
2026-01-18 16.842579 21.837704 29.716053 45.053321 82.910817 251.604269 NaN
2026-01-25 16.483481 21.475636 29.432671 45.198018 85.552657 288.417260 NaN
2026-02-01 15.873999 20.696585 28.395550 43.690386 83.060794 284.901213 NaN
2026-02-08 15.291442 19.942281 27.371330 42.144245 80.248773 277.012981 NaN
2026-02-15 15.103027 19.803086 27.400169 42.814192 84.321906 336.467579 NaN